Saray Policy Catalysts + Improved Supply-Demand Dynamics so Mangitonton na Marginal ya Inyaligwas ed Industriya na PVC

Diad arapen, say industriya na PVC na China et susuportaan na malet iran pundasyon parad positibon panmoria. Unona, say tuloytuloy ya pangipaakseb na "anti-involution" iran totontonen, kaiba lay pandumaan na presyo na kuryente tan say pangekal ed saray rebate ed buis ed arum a bansa, so mamapeles ed pakaandi na ag-epektibon kapasidad. Kumadwa, say balon kapasidad na PVC ed interon mundo et mansiansian abeba ed ontumbok iran taon, ya mangitonton ed kalkalnan iyaligwas na balanse na suplay-demand. Komatlo, say sankamundoan ya kompetisyon na industriya na PVC na China et mantutultuloy ya ondarakel, tan baleg so posibilidad ya onlaknab ed saray merkado na panag-eksport.

Lapud lalon inmaralem na saray domestic ya "anti-involution" ya totontonen, manlapud Enero 24 anggad 31, 2026, say research team na Guo Tai Futures so binmisita ed Shaanxi, Ningxia tan Inner Mongolia-say taloran manunan rehyon ya manpapawala na PVC- ed China. Say gagala et pian nanengneng so aktual ya epekto na saray manunan totontonen a singa say pandumaan na presyo na kuryente tan say pangekal ed saray rebate ed buis ed arum a bansa ed industriya na PVC, tan naseguro so iyaaligwas na pambawas na kapasidad, kondisyon na operasyon na korporasyon, tan saray realidad na suplay-demand ed lugar. Saray insurbey a rehyon et mankantidad na 7.45 milyon a tonelada na calcium- base ed PVC. kapasidad, ya mangirerepresenta na 25.55% na dagup na kapasidad na PVC na China tan 36% na kapasidad na PVC ya base ed calcium carbide na bansa. Wala met so 22.89 milyon a tonelada na kapasidad na calcium carbide, ya mankantidad na 60.88% na dagup a kapasidad na calcium carbide na China. Niarum ni, sarayan rehyon so pilot zone parad pandumaan na presyo na kuryente, kanian say research sample et representative na industriya.

Sayan research et akasentro ed duaran manunan totontonen: say pandumaan na presyo na kuryente tan say pangekal na PVC export tax rebates. Bilang manunan kundang ed silong na "anti-involution" ya polisiya, parehon walaan na baleg ya epekto ed istruktura na gastos, eksport landscape tan kapasidad na industriya na PVC.

Nipaakar ed pandumaan na presyo na kuryente, say Department of Industry and Information Technology na Shaanxi Province so angipaway na draft consultation document nen Disyembre 2025, ya manplaplanon pormal ya mangipaakseb na pandumaan na presyo na kuryente manlapud Hulyo 1, ya sakopen toy pitoran industriya ya mankaukolan na dakel ya enerhiya kaiba lay calcium carbide tan PVC. Say lokal a kapasidad na PVC tan calcium carbide ed Shaanxi et mankantidad na 7.18% tan 9% na nasyonal ya kabuoan, tan say totontonen so direktan mamaatagey ed gastos ed produksyon na calcium carbide. Unong ed survey, say totontonen so posiblin nasumpal tan mangiletneg na pundasyon parad pangipaakseb ed interon bansa. No nasumpal, say gastos ed produksyon na PVC ed Shaanxi et iilaloan ya ontagey na 70 yuan kada tonelada, ya abeba nen say teoretikal ya kalkulasyon. Sarag na saray negosyo ya protektaan so epekto diad panamegley na pangisaliw na coal-power quota tan pansaliw na calcium carbide manlapud Inner Mongolia, ya manresulta ed limitadon epekto ed saray lokal ya prodyuser na PVC. Saray ininterbyu ya negosyo et inmabobon ya say pandumaan na presyo na kuryente et aliwan sakey a rehyonal a totontonen noagta sakey a nasyonal a sukat ya iilaloan ya magmaliw ya sakey ya industriya pian nauman importantin kagawaan parad pangiregula ed saray negosyo ya mankaukolan na dakel ya enerhiya tan pangipaaligwas ed saray limitasyon ed gastos ed industriya ya akasentro ed merkado.

Nen Enero 9, say Ministry of Finance tan say State Taxation Administration so nankakasakey ya angipaway naAnunsyo nipaakar ed Panguman ed saray Polisiya na Rebate ed Buis ed Ipaway parad Photovoltaic tan Arum niran Produkto, ya malinew ya mangilaktip ed PVC resin, unplasticized PVC tan plasticized PVC ed adjustment scope. Sayan totontonen so angitonton ed antikey a panaon ya "rush export" ya agawa ed loob na bansa. Diad kaplesan, maslak ed saray manag-eksport na PVC et walaan na pre-order ya inlako anggad Pebrero, tan wala ray negosyo ya binawasan da ni ingen so domestic trade pian iyalis so pokus ed saray benta ed arum a bansa, ya suportaan so lebel na output. Lapud naapektoan na saray eskedyul na kargamento, say PVC exports et iilaloan ya onkapuy ed kagapo na Marso. No panaoy uran ed Southeast tan South Asia, saray exports et onloob ed adaptive adjustment period kayari na Abril, ya say iyabeba to et posiblin mansiansia anggad Hulyo. Manlapud panmoria na industriya, say pangangga na export tax rebates et iilaloan ya mamaatagey ed presyo na PVC ed interon mundo tan mamakiwas ed regional trade restructuring diad antikey a panaon. Balet, diad andukey a panaon, lapud prominentin bentaha na China ed gastos tan kapasidad, say totontonen so mangisulong na pamalaknab na sakop na eksport tan pandurumaan na produkto. Kaleganan to, say epekto ed saray domestic ethylene-based PVC producers et limitado, bangta saray atagey-gastos ya negosyo ed Henan, Shandong tan arum niran rehyon et nayarin mangarap na pressure na capacity clearance.

No nipaakar ed operasyon na korporasyon, saray PVC ya negosyo ed Shaanxi, Ningxia tan Inner Mongolia et kaslakan ya mansiasiansia na mabunigas ya cash flow ya anggapoy narekord ya lugi. Diad kapegleyan labat na Disyembre 2025 ya wala ray negosyo ya antikey ya nalugi ed cash flow da lapud alablabas ya inmabeba na presyo na PVC tan caustic soda. Diad saman a panaon, saray transaksion ed abeban presyo-PVC ya abeba nen 4,000 yuan/tonne tan liquid caustic soda ya abeba nen 2,000 yuan/tonne- et matalag, tan saray negosyo so inmebat diad impansiansia ra ed saray presyo tan impanbabawas da ed saray manpirma na order. Legan na panaon na survey, say presyo na PVC ya 5,000b-SG et inmatagey ed tagey na 4,000b yuan/tonne, tan say presyo na caustic soda et nansiansia ed baetan na 2,100-2,300 yuan/tonne, ya amawil ed makatunongan a presyo na tubo na industriya.

Nipaakar ed capacity clearance, say industriya so mangipapanengneng na mapatnag a pandumaan ed rehyon. Lapud manmamatalek ed saray bentaha ed karbon tan saray rekursos na kuryente, say amianen-bukig a rehyon so nagmaliw a nasyonal a base na gastos parad produksyon na PVC. Amin ya insurbey ya negosyo et manisia ya aliwan sayan rehyon so sankaunaan ya makanengneng na ibawas na kapasidad. kulang so kayamanan ya kayarian, atagey ya depresyon tan gastos ed kapital, tan atagey ya pressure ed imbentaryo ed saray produkto; wala met so maniirap lapud makapuy iran pakayarin man-export. Diad pidumaan, saray pribadon negosyo et mas maabig so performance da ed operasyon da tan mas positibo so panmoria ra ed merkado, ya susuportaan na sigpot ya industrial chain integration, saray bentaha ed gastos na saray self-owned power plants, tan saray estratehiya ed panagpresyo tan panaglako ya nababalang.

Say waloran PVC enterprises ya asakop ed sayan survey et kaiba iray state-owned, private tan central state-owned enterprises (CSOEs), ya walay baleg ya pandumaan na operasyon da.Saray state-owned enterprises et maslak ya mansasakit lapud kulang so suporta na industrial chain tan atagey ya operational pressure. Saray pribadon negosyo et kaslakan ya positibo ed arapen ya merkado lapud panangontrol ed gastos tan nababalang iran operasyon. Anggaman wala ray linya na produkto na CSOEs ya manlulugi, mansiasiansia ran malet so operasyon da ya walaan na bentaha ed full-kategorya na produkto tan cash flow, ya walaan na maalwar ya positibon awawey ed merkado.

No pankasakeyen so epekto na totontonen, operasyon na korporasyon tan saray kondisyon na merkado ed pasen, say merkado na PVC et iilaloan ya mangipatnag na "atagey antis na Spring Festival, abeba kayari na holiday" ya padron diad antikey a panaon. Diad andukey a panaon, nanengneng so daiset ya inyaligwas ya susuportaan na duaran driver na policy catalysts tan inyaligwas na supply-demand dynamics.

Say PVC market et akanengneng na "minor spring market" antis na Spring Festival, ya sengegan na apatiran manunan sengegan: Unona, say itatagey na presyo na calcium carbide so angiter na suporta ed gastos. Komadua, say inkalapagan ya imbentaryo na PVC ed limog na saray domestic producers et nansiansian abeba, ya say pre-sale cycles et 2-4 simba. Say output antis na Spring Festival et ngalngali la nalako, kanian saray negosyo et walad mabiskeg a posisyon ed negosasyon nipaakar ed presyo. Komatlo, say "rush exports" antis ya naandi so export tax rebates so nantultuloy ya angitonton ed saray presyo. Komapat, say abeban presyo na caustic soda so agunggonaan ed gastos ed produksyon na PVC.

Kayari na Spring Festival, balet, say tindaan et mangarap na nanduruman pressure. Diad sakey a dapag, onkupas so saray ipapaway kayari na sampot na "rush export" ya bintana. Diad biek a dapag, say iilaloan ya destocking na domestic inventory tan say ikapuy na domestic demand, kaiba so pangangga na export tax rebates, so mamabelat ed saray presyo.

Diad andukey a panaon, say industriya na PVC na China et mansiansian malet so positibon pundasyon. Unona, say tuloytuloy ya pangipaakseb na "anti-involution" iran totontonen, kaiba lay pandumaan na presyo na kuryente tan say pangekal ed saray rebate ed buis ed arum a bansa, so mamapeles ed pangekal na ag-epektibon kapasidad, mamaaligwas ed istruktura na kapasidad na industriya, tan lalon mamarakep ed market share na -involution ya atagey a kapasidad. 2026, say PVC capacity withdrawal na China et onsabi ed 895,000 tonnes, bangbalet say balon kapasidad na global et 705,000 tonnes labat, ya mangigapo na suplay. Say daiset ya idakel na kapasidad na PVC ed interon mundo tan say maples ya pangekal na ag-epektibon kapasidad ed ontumbok iran taon et mangitonton ed kalkalnan iyaligwas na suplay-demand balance. Komatlo, say industriya na PVC na China et walaan na malinew iran bentaha ed gastos tan kapasidad. Diad pegley na limitadon kapasidad ed biek-taew, say sankamundoan a kompetisyon na industriya na PVC na China so mantutultuloy ya onkakasil, ya mangiyoopresi na malaknab a potensyal ed panag-eksport.

Diad inkalapagan, say inmaligwas ya suplay-demand dynamics tan "anti-involution" policy catalysts so mangiiter na duaran suporta ed industriya na PVC, ya mamaneknek ed andukey a panaon ya positibon ugali to.